Simulation and an online dashboard tool to analyze population changes as a function of time and predict population as a function of speculated development scenario within the built environment.
Our research proposes a methodology and an online dashboard to analyze population changes as a function of time, in the context of massive redevelopment within the existing urban fabric. The simulation tool receives a script of speculated urban development over time, current household information, and interaction rules. With these components, the simulation of future urban development suggests the population composition from a micro-point of view. The simulation output is a population track-change CSV file that describes the properties of the existing population and that of newcomers at any given time. The CSV file is then fed into an online dashboard that presents the population composition as a function of the urban development. The co-occurrences of environment and population change adds a level of complexity to the simulation, raising questions of population resilience to environmental change. To cope with these questions, we have created a synthetics population that both statistically resembles the actual population and generates a new population when needed. We defined characteristics of the population such as age, income, and ownership, and finally defined interactions between the population characteristics and the changing environment. We have developed the tool based on the planning data obtained from the municipality of Bat-Yam, Israel. The tool can be applied online and connected to current planning tools using simple GIS files, spreadsheets, or other database sources.
Speakers: Shai Sussman